I found a great data set of indicators, the 2008 UN Data Development Indicators. This enabled me to run tighter regressions as all my data, from population, cancer and other variables by country were all related to 2008, reducing time-frame related inconsistencies.
To recap what I am doing I plotted Brain & Nervours System Cancer incidence by country according to Globocan, a UN study performed in 2008, and a group of other variables. Reading the Globocan metholodoly it was clear that many of the cancer statistics by country were already estimates, so I am running estimates on estimates, never a good start, but nonetheless a start.
Interestingly I found a new variable that bet my previous highest predictor of Brain & Nervous System Cancer Incidence by Country predictor (average height, and yes, I am tall, 6'4'' ft).
I added the following variables to my regressions:
- Latitude: a girl from work mentioned meeting a person who had been treated with Vitamin D for sclerosis with positive results, so I figured why not add latitude by country to my data-set;
- Energy per Capita: I tried to used this as an approximation of polution exposure;
- Carbon Foot Print: same as above;
- Income Index: I am sure cancer incidence increases with the ability to diagnose, so higher income countries surely are negatively impacted on my analysis for having arguably good things such as longer life expectancy, and negative things such as a higher carbon foot print.
Obviously many of these variables are far from being independent, but the correlations between them and Brain & Nervours System Cancer incidence by country are pretty high. See below the correlations and R-Squares of all the varilables explored relative to BT incidence by country. The R-Square statistic is simply an estimation of how the variation in one variable (in our case Brain & Nervous Cancer) can be statistically described by a set of other variables (in our case the variables below):
Correlation
|
R-Square
|
|
Latitude
|
73.1%
|
53.4%
|
Income Index
|
72.0%
|
51.9%
|
Average Height
|
69.7%
|
48.6%
|
Carbs % of Diet
|
-69.2%
|
53.8%
|
Protein
Consumption (kg/yr)
|
62.2%
|
38.7%
|
Life Expectancy
|
59.6%
|
35.6%
|
Alcohol
Consumption
|
56.1%
|
31.4%
|
Energy per Capita
|
55.6%
|
30.9%
|
Carbon Footprint
|
54.1%
|
29.2%
|
% Urban Population
|
44.8%
|
20.1%
|
As a curious explorer I would never consider this a scientific analysis, just a glorified speculation, let's call this Science for illustration purposes as it is full of numbers, something every scientist needs to prove a hypothesis. To ensure that there are no misunderstanding to how I intepret science I will use the following definition: something that is observable, measurable and reproduceable under similar circumstances. For example, in theory for a drug to be approved by the FDA the drug manufacturer needs to prove statistically that people treated with the drug have a much higher likelyhood of being cured than people using placebo.
I was surprised with this week's Veja Magazine (a Brazilian magazine with large circulation) which had in its front page a call-out for Vitamin D, a hormone produced by the body when exposed to the Sun. Aparently Vitamin D defficiencies are now being explored as a major cause of auto-immune diseases such as Sclerosis, Cancer and Rickets, the latter one a proven case long time ago.
Given the fact that this is not an FDA approved treatment one might argue that this is not scientific. However when I looked at the data above I was intrigued, so I moved to the next step in my logic: this is not scientific as there is no substantial data to prove that in order to cure an auto-imune disease just stay out in the Sun and the disease will be gone. Given the numbers above I could argue in favor of pseudo-science (let's say the data above can be called pseudo-science), but since I know enough about the scientific method I have to move to the next logical step: faith - I either believe the Sun can cure or not.
I still like my Heat Shock Protein theory and the Sun might elevate HSP levels, any taker? Wether Vitamin D, HSP or anything else might cure cancer we still need to deall with everything else in life wisely, never letting a condition define who we are.
It is amazing to see how the world works in cycles. Thousands of years ago Egiptians planted the seeds to our monoteistic religions treating the Sun as their God. While they worshiped many Gods, Ra (the Sun) was the father & grand-father of the other Gods. All of a sudden the Sun is again contemplated not only as the solution to our energy problems but now also to health.
At this stage believing in such thing is a matter of Faith rather than of Science, and quite frankly there is nothing wrong with this in my view. The reality is that we know significantly less than what we don't know, we need to accept that doctors and religious leaders don't have answers to everything and therefore we need to accept that it is better to live a happy life sick than to lead a sad life with health.
Existencial questions exist throughout the world and are answered differently by every culture. I am becoming fascinated by the similarities of how ancient people from all over the world dealt with these questions, taking different paths to get to the same place. As people of faith like to say "God writes straight with crooked lines", and this is true to every culture. The only things we know for sure are that we will not live forever, at least in our current form, and that we need to make the most out of the time we have in our current form. But what exactly does "making the most out of the time we have" mean? I now turn to examples from a great book I am reading that aggregates all the great philosophers of the world in a suscint and incredible book called "The Book of Philosophy".
I somewhat liked the Confucian definition: "The virtuous man is not the one at the top of the social hierarchy, but the one that understands his role in this hierarchy and accepts it." However there is something missing in it that did not sit well in my mind - it is somewhat submissive, or like I tell my daughters, "you get what you get and you don't get upset". So I move to Bhuda who preached the following: "Don't believe in anything, no matter where you read it or who tells you, unless it is in line with your own reasoning". So I finally close with Mozy, my favorite thinker so far, and I have many to go. "Jian Ai", or in English, treat everyone like you want to be treated.
Today we have over 5 billion people wondering about the same things that significantly less people worried about centuries ago, yet many lead a meaningless life worrying about meanigless things. If you haven't found what makes you tick keep searching, and I hope that a many tick with science and that your search for answers to extend lives through medicine and medical/pharmaceutical research leads us to new treatment paths, like Flemming, Sabin and Pasteur have done.
Given the pseudo-scientific nature of my findings it is too early for me to move to the Equator, give away my money, shrink, shift my diet to 100% pasta, cut down on meat, eliminate alcohol from my diet (this one I have actually done) and abolish anything that consumes fossil fuels. No, I don't believe that shifting to a vegan or paleo diet and moving to a cave will help me at all (these are all faith-based principles to a better life), but if this moves you do, do it! The world is big enough to assimilate different thoughts and faiths, we just need to learn to co-exist and accept the personal consequences of the choices we make, which are ultimately always ours. God (or nature) has given us freewill and we need to use it wisely to be happy and fullfilled. With the end of the world approaching, according to the Mayans, I wish everyone a Happy End of the World and a Prosperous Reencarnation! Every day is a new birth and we should treat our time accordingly, we don't need to wait until we die to go to Paradise, we need to build Paradise on Earth to deserve the next one.
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